Nine straight months of home price gains finally dwindled into a decrease on November, when the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index fell 0.2% month over month.
It’s not a large slide by any means, but it’s still the first time since January 2023 that prices have slipped on a monthly basis. Per index data, prices had reached an all-time high in October, but November’s backtrack brings them back to a level consistent with pricing during the summer months of last year.
The dip coincided with 30-year mortgage rates peaking around 8%, tanking affordability even further and pushing potential buyers to the sidelines. With rates eroding by more than 1% since, price weakness may prove transitory as more homebuyers come out from the woodwork to compete for a limited number of listings.
The 20-city composite index, which tracks home prices in 20 of the nation’s largest cities, mirrored the national index in posting a 0.2% monthly decline in November. The more exclusive 10-city index fared slightly better, receding just 0.1%.
Seattle and San Francisco saw the largest monthly declines at 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
Notably, despite the monthly drop, prices remain up substantially year over year, due in large part to the nine-month run of price escalation. The national index reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from 4.7% one month prior. Some cities continued strong streaks of large annual gains.
“November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%,” said Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P DJI. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing city in our composite.”
Moreover, six cities — Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York and Cleveland — logged a new all-time high during November. On the other end of the spectrum, Portland, Oregon, is the only metro where prices are decreasing annually.
Price growth in the expensive West continues to lag other regions at just 3.0%. The Northeast posted the largest gain at 6.4%, followed by the Midwest at 6.3%. However, the gulf is narrowing; the November index saw the smallest gap between regions since the first quarter of 2021.
“The tight disparity speaks to a rising tide across the country, with less evidence of micro-markets bucking the trend,” Luke said. “The days of markets in the South rising double digits with markets in the Midwest remaining flat are over.”
