The share of prospective homebuyers seeking to relocate to a new metro area fell to 23.9% in November, a third straight monthly decline that dropped the figure to its lowest level in a year and a half.
That’s according to a new report from Redfin, which also noted that November’s share was down from 24.1% during the same month in 2022, marking the first annualized decrease in Redfin’s records. The recent low comes only months after the all-time peak of 26%, set during the summer of 2023.
Migration remains above historic averages (with the pre-pandemic rate hovering around 19%) as homebuyers continue to root out affordability in a high-rate, high-price housing market. All 10 of the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users seeking properties outside of their home market offered less expensive homes than the top origins for buyers moving into those cities.
Redfin cites a number of reasons for the dwindling share of buyers looking to switch metros. For one, the resurgence of on-site work has stemmed the migration from large, office-oriented corporate hubs to smaller and less expensive cities. For another, home price growth in many of these migration destinations has vastly exceeded that of many of the large cities that residents were drawn from.
Consider Sacramento, the most popular November destination for Redfin users searching for homes outside their metro area. Prices in the California capital have grown nearly 35% since pre-pandemic days. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Bay Area — the top origin for nonresident house hunters in Sacramento — has seen prices rise 8% over the same time frame. The Bay Area remains a pricier market than Sacramento, to be sure, but the outsized difference in price appreciation makes the case for relocation somewhat less attractive.
Sacramento’s net inflow — the number of searchers on Redfin looking to move into the area minus the number of searchers looking to leave — was at 5,100 in November. That’s far below the city’s net inflow of 7,000 in November 2022, but it was still head and shoulders above the rest of the pack in November 2023. Las Vegas was second with a net inflow of 3,800, followed by North Port-Sarasota and Cape Coral, a pair of Florida metros with a net inflow of 3,700 each.
The Bay Area, meanwhile, is no longer the metro area that most Redfin users are looking to leave behind, a position it has occupied for more than two years. That dubious honor now belongs to a different California megalopolis: Los Angeles, with a net outflow of 26,100. The Bay Area remains No. 2, but the City of Angels took the top spot because while the flow out of the Bay Area has seen a steady decrease, the flow out of Los Angeles has recently regained steam.
