Government Archives - Scotsman Guide https://www.scotsmanguide.com/tag/government/ The leading resource for mortgage originators. Thu, 28 Sep 2023 23:45:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.0.2 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/files/sites/2/2023/02/Icon_170x170-150x150.png Government Archives - Scotsman Guide https://www.scotsmanguide.com/tag/government/ 32 32 Viewpoint: Consumers Deserve a Mortgage Bill of Rights https://www.scotsmanguide.com/residential/viewpoint-consumers-deserve-a-mortgage-bill-of-rights/ Sun, 01 Oct 2023 08:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/?p=64108 Lawmakers must strengthen protections to ease costs and counter harmful practices

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Digging out from the 2008 housing crisis has not been easy. Americans were harmed by predatory mortgage lending practices, a collapse in home prices and a steep drop in the national homeownership rate. Since then, the U.S. housing market has experienced a slow but steady recovery.

Census data shows the national homeownership rate was 65.9% as of second-quarter 2023, up a full 3 percentage points since 2016. But challenges remain. The National Association of Realtors found that the gap in the homeownership rate between Blacks and whites is the biggest in a decade.

“When 30-year mortgage rates were in the 3% range, it was easier to overlook mortgage practices that harmed consumers.”

And a report this past June from the National Association of Homebuilders showed that while wage gains boosted affordability at the start of this year, the trade group’s first-quarter 2023 affordability index was still significantly lower than one year earlier.

When 30-year mortgage rates were in the 3% range, it was easier to overlook mortgage practices that harmed consumers. But now that interest rates have skyrocketed, protecting people from glitches in consumer protections should be more of a priority than ever.

This past summer, the Community Home Lenders of America released its Consumer Mortgage Bill of Rights. This document identifies specific areas where consumer protections need to be strengthened. Mortgage professionals should advocate for these positions to ensure a fair and thriving mortgage market.

Pricing policies

One consumer right should be robust competition in the mortgage services market. For instance, the opposition of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) purchase of Black Knight was a meaningful step. One company with quasi-monopoly power over mortgage origination software services should not increase its market share.

The divestitures of Black Knight’s Empower and Optimal Blue platforms were designed to win FTC approval and helped to ease the deal’s many problems. The merger approval facilitates vertical integration of mortgage origination and servicing tasks.

There are ways that a company like ICE with such a large market share can impose anti- competitive measures on the mortgage industry. For instance, it charges so-called “user seat” fees based on the number of loan originators who use its software. By increasing these fees as originator numbers go up but not reducing them as numbers go down artificially inflates the costs of the mortgage process.

“Consumer protection is not just about pricing policies but also about safeguarding borrowers from abusive practices.”

Pressuring lenders into buying discretionary services (what’s known as tying and bundling) just to continue using the basic mortgage origination software service also increases costs. The same goes for charging junk fees — so-called “click fees” — to electronically access various vendor information such as the appraisal, credit report, title insurance and flood certification.

Inflated fees caused by these practices will inevitably be passed along to consumers. These practices should be scrutinized as a merged ICE-Black Knight entity grows. For example, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) should monitor and address consumer mistreatment.

A different area that includes not only a dominant market power, but an actual monopoly, is credit scores. In November 2022, FICO raised its fees for credit scores by 400% — with the exception of an arbitrary and select group of about 50 mortgage lenders. The lenders pay these fees directly, but they’re ultimately passed along to borrowers, since a credit score is a required element of a mortgage. Underserved borrowers are hurt the most. This creates a disincentive for mortgage originators to work with and improve the scores of underserved borrowers with credit blemishes, since the 400% price hike will be compounded over multiple credit pulls.

The long-term solution is to create competition. Sandra Thompson, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is trying to do this by initiating a process for conforming lenders to use VantageScore. Until there is real competition, however, FICO should rescind its 400% price hike and scale it back to something that resembles its true inflationary costs.

Abusive practices

Consumer protection is not just about pricing policies but also about safeguarding borrowers from abusive practices. So, another right should be the option for consumers to say no to trigger lead solicitations. Too often, when a loan originator pulls a credit report on a mortgage application, the borrower is immediately inundated with an avalanche of intrusive texts, emails and phone calls.

There are powerful financial forces that will fight any effort to end or limit trigger lead solicitations. A simple solution would be to create a credit-reporting portal so that consumers can be given the power at the time of the loan application to decide whether or not they want to receive trigger lead solicitations.

Another non-price-based consumer protection deals with so-called “dual compensation,” in which an individual acts as both the agent on the purchase or sale of a home and as the loan originator on the purchase mortgage for that home. Reasonable people disagree on whether this is a good or bad idea, but no one should disagree on basic protections for consumers.

Consumers should have three basic protections in regard to this practice. First, an individual representing the property seller should not simultaneously serve as the loan originator for the buyer. Second, there should be uniform nationwide disclosures. Third, a loan originator who also makes money from the real estate transaction should be licensed.

In fact, this licensing requirement should be universal for all registered mortgage originators. The CFPB should use its authority under the Dodd-Frank Act requirement that all loan originators must be “qualified.” This would close the loophole under which bank-based originators do not have to pass the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) for Mortgage Licensing Act test, pass an independent background check or complete eight hours of continuing education each year.

Uniformity of rules should also apply to the loan originator compensation requirements under the Truth in Lending Act. This rule prohibits originator compensation to vary from borrower to borrower, but independent brokers can evade it by using different channels to charge different fees to similar borrowers who utilize the same type of loan. This loophole should be closed or enforced as appropriate.

Unfair premium

Finally — and yes, this may not technically be a consumer protection — but borrowers should have the right to have their mortgage insurance premiums canceled when their loan-to-value ratio reaches 78%.

This right actually exists in the 1998 Homeowner Protection Act statute, but not for loans through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The agency used to adhere to this, but in 2013 it changed the policy and the FHA now charges premiums for the life of the loan (unless the borrower made a downpayment of at least 10%).

Ten years ago, this might have made sense as a temporary step to help the FHA build up capital after the 2008 housing crisis. But the FHA is now flush with capital, and with today’s skyrocketing mortgage rates, the exit option to refinance with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac has closed for many homeowners. ●

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Does the rent-control movement pose a danger to investors? https://www.scotsmanguide.com/commercial/does-the-rent-control-movement-pose-a-danger-to-investors/ Sun, 01 Oct 2023 08:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/?p=64165 It should come as no surprise to anyone in the multifamily housing sector that rent control has gained a lot of followers in recent years. While rent-control and rent-stabilization programs have been around for more than a century, the movement is finding renewed life as tenants deal with skyrocketing prices. The recent groundswell for help […]

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It should come as no surprise to anyone in the multifamily housing sector that rent control has gained a lot of followers in recent years. While rent-control and rent-stabilization programs have been around for more than a century, the movement is finding renewed life as tenants deal with skyrocketing prices.

The recent groundswell for help to control rents has been building for the past few years across the country. According to a 2021 report by the Urban Institute, more than 200 U.S. municipalities have enacted some form of rent regulations, but rent control remains illegal in most states. In 2019, Oregon became the first state to implement a statewide rent-control program.

“If these buildings are regulated to the point of economic ruin, who is going to lend property owners money to keep up the buildings?”

– Michael Tobman, director of membership and communications, Rent Stabilization Association

Some municipalities that have recently joined the movement include Minneapolis and neighboring St. Paul, where voters passed rent-stabilization measures in November 2021. While St. Paul moved forward this year with a modified plan, the Minneapolis City Council has been unable to develop a consensus around its own policies. In March 2023, the Boston City Council passed a rent-stabilization plan that has reportedly run into roadblocks in the Massachusetts Legislature. Seattle officials recently voted down a rent-control proposal but are discussing other options.

Even the Biden administration is getting involved. This past January, federal officials released “The White House Blueprint for a Renters Bill of Rights,” a white paper that lays out a statement of principles that includes renters having access to safe, quality, accessible and affordable housing.

The paper notes that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will increase affordability by classifying certain multifamily loans as “mission driven” if they include covenants that restrict rents at levels affordable to households earning between 80% and 120% of the area median income. This year, the FHFA is requiring at least half of all Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae multifamily loan purchases to be tied to mission-driven properties. If these loans are granted at last year’s rate, this would equate to an investment in 700,000 affordable housing units.

Even if cities continue to fight over the details, it’s easy to see why the recent rent-control push has been so popular. The U.S. has recently seen dizzying increases in rents that far outpace inflation. According to the federal white paper, more than 44 million households — or about 35% of the U.S. population — live in rental housing. These families are facing rents that are rising much faster than incomes. The national median rent jumped by 17.4% during the year ending in January 2022, according to Realtor.com. And renters are demanding relief.

How to get this relief, however, is the subject of much debate. The commercial real estate industry has long held that rent controls don’t work, claiming that they stall new development, reduce supply, lower property values and, over time, harm the local economy. The National Association of Realtors says that while rent control may help some tenants for a short time, these programs increase rents for units outside the controlled area. Developers may be forced to leave an area that has rent controls or turn apartments into condominiums, which exacerbates the shortage of rental units.

Michael Tobman is experiencing the rent-control issue up close. Tobman is the director of membership and communications for the Rent Stabilization Association, an advocacy organization that represents more than 25,000 landlords who own more than 1 million apartments in New York City that are subject to rent-control measures.

Tobman says that rent increases aren’t keeping up with the rising costs of insurance, utilities and property taxes. He maintains that the city’s rent-stabilization program suffers from being politicized and is not means-tested. New York has many examples of wealthy people, even celebrities, living in rent-controlled apartments. One of his main frustrations is that the state’s Supreme Court has determined that rent stabilization is a public benefit. But this public benefit is being provided by private owners.

“Providing affordable housing should be a function of the government,” Tobman says. “And yet the government in New York state has shirked their responsibilities and moved it onto the shoulders of private owners.”

The FHFA recently sent out a request for information concerning the agency’s proposed actions to promote renter protections and limit “egregious rent increases for future investments,” according to the White House. Some 18 real estate trade associations joined together to provide feedback. As expected, the agency got an earful. In a press release, the industry coalition warned that rent-control mandates disincentivize multifamily investments across markets and will exacerbate housing affordability issues, including the fact that supply has not kept pace with the nation’s population growth. Whether coalition efforts can blunt the growing power of the rent-control movement is unclear.

“What we are seeing in certain cities and states is that press-savvy activists have turned this issue into a sort of political organizing cry,” Tobman says. “They are doing this without really discussing the broader economic impact of the policies they are trying to enact. Rent is income from buildings. If these buildings are regulated to the point of economic ruin, who is going to lend property owners money to keep up the buildings?” ●

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Real estate groups file amicus brief urging prudence in Supreme Court’s CFPB ruling https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/real-estate-groups-file-amicus-brief-urging-prudence-in-supreme-courts-cfpb-ruling/ Wed, 17 May 2023 22:33:08 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/?p=61151 A ruling with brush strokes too broad could risk 'immediate and intense disruption' to housing, groups say

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A group of real estate trade organizations has come together for a joint amicus brief that urges the U.S. Supreme Court to be prudent, thoughtful and deliberate in considering an upcoming ruling on the constitutionality of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) filed the brief — in which interested parties that aren’t directly involved in a case offer relevant expertise — in Community Financial Services Association of America v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. In that case, which the court will consider in its fall term, a payday lending trade group challenged a CFPB ruling that restricts some of the industry’s lending practices. The rule was upheld, but an appeals court eventually found the CFPB’s funding mechanism to be unconstitutional, leading the CFPB to petition the Supreme Court to review the appeals court’s finding.

The amicus brief’s statement of interest noted that all three undersigned groups have “a strong interest in maintaining the stability of the mortgage and real estate markets” and “safeguard[ing] the legal rights and business interests of their members.”

The real estate groups don’t take a side on whether or not the CFPB is actually constitutional, but they assert that the guidance that the bureau has provided since its establishment in 2010 is too fundamental to the health of the residential mortgage industry (and the economy as a whole) to throw into limbo. If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling of the appeals court and deems the CFPB unconstitutional with too broad a brush, it would potentially erase years of regulatory structure and plunge many financial markets, including real estate, into uncertainty. In the case of the mortgage industry, for example, it would mean suddenly leaving lenders and servicers in the dark about how to issue and service loans in full compliance with federal law.

The brief warns that if the Supreme Court rules for the payday lending group, “it must be careful to issue a circumscribed ruling that does not call into question other crucial regulations issued by the CFPB over the past years.” The groups reminded the court that, in a previous case ruling that the CFPB’s single-director format violated the separation of powers, it acknowledged that “undoing the CFPB’s actions across the board ‘would trigger a major regulatory disruption’ and do ‘appreciable damage to Congress’ work in the consumer finance arena.’”

Therefore, the brief stated, any ruling provided by the high court must take care not to call current CFPB regulations into question or risk “immediate and intense disruption to the housing market, harming both consumers and the broader economy.”

Notably, Community Financial Services Association of America v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has several amicus briefs attached, many of which are in defense of the CFPB. One in particular, filed by 90 state and local nonprofit organizations, notes that many state agencies nationwide mirror the CFPB in their funding structure. Since state courts follow the appropriations jurisprudence of the Supreme Court, that brief stated, a ruling that disapproves the CFPB’s own funding structure could “hobble agencies throughout the states.”

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This Fix Fails to Solve the Problem https://www.scotsmanguide.com/residential/this-fix-fails-to-solve-the-problem/ Mon, 01 May 2023 08:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/?p=60796 Well-intentioned state laws may actually discourage lending to underserved borrowers

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New York and Illinois recently joined Massachusetts in adopting state-level versions of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), the 1977 federal statute designed to encourage banks to serve low- and moderate-income households in the same communities where they take deposits and have branches. These state-level statutes go further than the federal law by extending the same requirements to nonbank mortgage lenders.

People can debate the impact of the federal law for banks — whether it has any teeth or whether it makes any difference with respect to mortgages. What seems clear, however, is that it makes no sense to try to adapt the same law — which was specifically designed for banks with branches and deposits — for independent mortgage banks (IMBs). This is the epitome of trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.

The Community Reinvestment Act was designed to prevent banks from taking federally insured deposits from underserved communities and diverting them to provide credit in wealthier communities. But independent mortgage banks don’t have access to insured deposits, to Federal Home Loan Bank advances or to the Federal Reserve’s discount window.

“Year after year, (independent mortgage banks) decisively outperform banks in originating mortgages to minorities.”

Independent mortgage banks don’t take money out of underserved communities. They bring mortgage credit into underserved communities by accessing Ginnie Mae mortgage- backed securities, cash windows from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or by selling loans to aggregators. Unlike banks, only a small fraction of the mortgage business for these institutions is generated through physical offices.

Most importantly, there is no evidence that IMBs fail to work with underserved and minority borrowers. Year after year, these financial companies decisively outperform banks in originating mortgages to minorities (e.g., see the annual reports from The Greenlining Institute) and to underserved borrowers (e.g., see the monthly reports from the Urban Institute).

Unlike banks, independent mortgage banks generally do not impose credit overlays, or additional guidelines to prevent default, which in effect limit loans to wealthier borrowers. And unlike correspondent lenders such as Wells Fargo, independent mortgage banks don’t exit the mortgage market when times get tough.

Simply put, CRA statutes for independent mortgage banks are solutions in search of problems. Still, with states like New York and Illinois joining Massachusetts in adopting legislation, this seems to be a trend. So, let’s take a look at what these states have done and what the likely impact will be.

Massachusetts experiment

Advocates of CRA for independent mortgage banks point to Massachusetts, which adopted its law in 2007. Let’s take a look at how this turned out. Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data for Massachusetts since it adopted CRA for nonbanks (2020 versus 2008) showed that growth in nonbank lending within the state significantly trailed the national average.

When Massachusetts adopted its CRA, the 26% independent mortgage bank share of mortgages in the Bay State in 2008 was above the national average of 24%. Twelve years later, however, the IMB share of mortgages in Massachusetts (55%) had fallen significantly below the national average of 63%.

In these 12 years, the IMB share of mortgages to low- and moderate-income borrowers in Massachusetts increased from 27% in 2008 to 62% in 2020, while the national average of IMB lending to such borrowers increased at a faster pace, from 29% to 67%. The IMB share of mortgages to borrowers of color in Massachusetts increased by the same percentage (from 27% in 2008 to 62% in 2020). But the national average of IMB lending to minority borrowers increased even more rapidly, from 33% to 71%.

You can’t pinpoint cause and effect here. But clearly, the Massachusetts experiment has not lived up to its billing. And it is possible that the Massachusetts CRA was a factor in discouraging IMBs from coming into the state to make mortgages.

Plaguing questions

New York’s CRA law was enacted in 2021 and went into effect one year later on Nov. 1, 2022. It directs the superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) to assess the performance of a mortgage banker in helping to meet the credit needs of their entire community, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.

Specific factors to consider in this assessment include efforts taken by the mortgage banker to ascertain the needs of their community; marketing to members of their community; community outreach and educational programs; participation by management; any practices intended to discourage applications; and the geographic distribution of loan applications and denials. The New York state law also requires DFS to monitor the mortgage banker’s record of opening and closing offices; its participation in government-insured, guaranteed or subsidized loan programs; and the mortgage banker’s ability to meet community credit needs based on their company’s financial condition, size, legal impediments and local economic conditions.

The law provides for the assessment and all communications by DFS to be available to the public upon request. Furthermore, the superintendent may conduct public hearings when an objection to an application has been submitted. Therefore, in addition to the normal risks associated with noncompliance, there is a substantial reputational risk for failure to meet the department’s standards.

A fundamental question raised by this law is what constitutes the “community” of the mortgage banker. Under the federal Community Reinvestment Act, regulators such as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have defined the assessment area of a bank based in part on the location of its principal office, branch office or another deposit-taking facility. 

A mortgage banker who is licensed in New York is not required to maintain an office in the state — and many do not. What is the “community” in New York for an out-of-state mortgage banker? The industry will look to DFS for clarity in areas such as this, as this is the sort of question that plagues any state-based effort to apply CRA to independent mortgage banks.

Recipe for retreat

The Illinois CRA was signed into law in March 2021. In December of last year, the state released draft regulations on how to implement the law. This draft exemplifies the problems of applying CRA to independent mortgage banks. The proposed regulations show a fundamental lack of understanding of these financial companies’ business models.

For example, one assessment criteria is “innovative or flexible lending.” So, will an independent mortgage bank that overwhelmingly originates Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans — which include low- or zero-downpayment terms designed for underserved and first-time homebuyers — be penalized because they are not “innovative” or “flexible”?

“For states determined to adopt CRA, it matters how they do it. There should be appropriate volume-exemption levels to avoid deterring nonbanks in nearby states from deciding to lend in that state.”

The same goes with requirements for loss mitigation. Independent mortgage banks predominately originate FHA, VA and conventional loans that have the strongest loss-mitigation requirements — much stronger than banks typically have. As long as an IMB follows these requirements, it makes no sense to have an additional test.

The regulations show a bias toward banks and against IMBs. They disallow credit for loans that independent mortgage banks originate and sell to banks, if a bank claims federal CRA credit for the same loan. This is backward. The loan would not have been made if the IMB didn’t originate it. And if a specific bank didn’t buy an FHA, VA or conventional loan, another bank would have done so.

Finally, like in New York, the Illinois regulations are unclear as to whether they impose a requirement that if a lender enters a state, it has to serve all geographic parts of the state. Combined with low loan threshold for CRA applicability, and new CRA exam costs and burdens, this is a recipe for discouraging lenders in adjoining states from expanding into Illinois.

Sensible alternatives

There are more effective ways for states to encourage mortgage lending to minority and underserved borrowers. For example, one way to generate more mortgages to minority borrowers is simply to have more minority loan originators. 

The Secure and Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing (SAFE) Act creates high qualifications standards for independent mortgage bank originators. This is fine, even though for some reason the standards are much lower for bank-based originators.

But states should also look at ways to lower the hurdles for a nonbank originator to become licensed. States should waive SAFE Act exam fees and subsidize these courses for minority and low-income originator candidates. Additionally, states should not deny licenses to loan originators who have blemishes on their credit reports, which have nothing to do with their qualifications to be an originator.

For states determined to adopt CRA, it matters how they do it. There should be appropriate volume-exemption levels to avoid deterring nonbanks in nearby states from deciding to lend in that state.

The CRA process should be streamlined with appropriate safe harbors. If an IMB has loan statistics showing they are adequately serving low- and moderate-income borrowers, they should not have to undergo extensive and costly exams. And these institutions should not be forced to contribute to community development funds of nonprofits, because that is not their mission.

Finally, to other states considering the adoption of CRA for independent mortgage banks, consider one thing: Look before you leap. This all sounds like a good idea. But you will discourage the very thing you want to encourage. ●

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An Uncertain Outcome in the Midst of the ‘Storm’ https://www.scotsmanguide.com/residential/an-uncertain-outcome-in-the-midst-of-the-storm/ Sat, 01 Apr 2023 08:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/?p=60291 Former FHFA director details his days creating mortgage policy at the outset of the pandemic

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Government lockdowns, fear of exposure, and economic uncertainty resulted in the sharpest job market decline in American history, with total nonfarm employment dropping by 22 million jobs from February to April 2020. In comparison, just under 9 million jobs were lost in the Great Recession, and that occurred over two years, from 2008 to 2010, not two months.

With job loss often comes housing distress. We needed a financial bridge to stabilize families’ financial health, at least until the unemployment benefits kicked in.

The solution would be to provide borrowers with forbearance. Not forgiveness. They would be able to “press pause” on their monthly payment. The missed payments would be added to the loan balance, so they would eventually have to be repaid. We hoped that borrowers would be back on their feet within a few months, or that they would have started to receive unemployment insurance, the very purpose of which was to help workers meet their expenses, including for housing.

In March 2020, we were still learning about COVID-19’s transmission. We did know that evictions and foreclosures often rely on personal interactions. For the households that go through a judicial process, a cramped courtroom could easily become a super-spreader event. Evictions and foreclosures entail other interactions as well, such as having a sheriff’s deputy oversee the process onsite or spending hours at a legal aid clinic or homeless shelter. All of these were possible transmission risks. While not as directly critical as the health care inventions, keeping families in their homes would reduce spread while also giving the health care community additional time to develop mitigation tools.

Enormous gamble

As a front-row observer of the 2008 crisis, I am convinced that much of the federal response was poorly structured, especially the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). A major influence on my decision-making was the intention to not repeat the design flaws of HAMP and HARP.

I wanted to avoid one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Recession: structuring assistance in a way that would discourage work. The Great Recession witnessed the weakest job growth of any post–World War II recession. A major reason for this weak recovery was the design of HAMP and HARP, which created large reductions in mortgage relief for any increase in borrower earnings.

Another problem of the 2008 mortgage crisis was the paper chase associated with HAMP and HARP. For borrowers to be eligible, a substantial amount of paperwork was required. There were countless stories of such papers being lost or rejected. In some instances, forms were being submitted with false information.

One reason for a stringent application process for mortgage assistance during the Great Recession was to determine how much assistance to grant. The Great Recession programs were means-tested, with benefits being reduced as one’s income grew. There is a logic to such a requirement. We should limit, or target, government resources to those most in need. That said, any income information would be stale. With the rapid rate of job loss, the use of last year’s tax return would likely not offer an accurate picture of a borrower’s current need.

We would take borrowers at their word. Servicers would orally inquire whether a borrower requiring assistance had suffered a financial hardship as a direct result of COVID-19, such as a job loss. I recognized this was a big gamble. It could easily have been taken advantage of by borrowers not needing assistance, potentially overwhelming the mortgage market. But we needed a system that was quick and clean.

Stunning success

Ultimately, about 8 million borrowers, roughly 1 in 10 homeowners, entered COVID mortgage forbearance. By 2022, over 90 percent would exit forbearance, getting back on their feet. In fact, more than half would be in forbearance for three months or less. Fifteen percent would take forbearance for only a single month.

About a fifth of those borrowers would continue to make their monthly payments, despite having entered forbearance. Another fifth would repay their missed payments in one lump sum. I must admit I was surprised at how often Fannie and Freddie borrowers would send in a check for three or four months of missed payments. Over a fourth paid off their entire mortgage, usually by taking advantage of the record low rates to refinance.

Mortgage forbearance offered during COVID-19 was a success, especially compared with the efforts of 2008. That outcome was not guaranteed. Almost by coincidence, my obsession with the 2008 response became an asset. There would be an opportunity to do it right this time.

The parameters of the COVID-19 mortgage response, however appropriate for a pandemic, might not be the best response for next time. And there will be a next time. Most likely, it will match the historical trend of a monetary-induced increase in mortgage rates leading to a decline in housing demand, followed by weakness in housing prices, which when mixed with a spike in unemployment leads to mortgage distress.

The precedents set during COVID-19 that are likely to be useful next time include: basing duration of forbearance on a fixed window in time, not on changes in income or employment; allowing borrowers to attest to hardship first, with servicers verifying eligibility later; and requiring that missed payments be paid back but not all at once. Be quick and clean. Directly address the issue at hand. ●

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Federal Reserve dials up rate hike of 25 basis points, suggests ongoing increases ahead https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/federal-reserve-dials-up-rate-increase-of-25-basis-points-signals-ongoing-rate-increases-ahead/ Wed, 01 Feb 2023 19:21:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/uncategorized/federal-reserve-dials-up-rate-increase-of-25-basis-points-signals-ongoing-rate-increases-ahead/ With consumer prices cooling, the Federal Reserve continued to roll back its interest rate policy and lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target of 4.5% to 4.75%. The central bank announced the change after Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting national fiscal policy. […]

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With consumer prices cooling, the Federal Reserve continued to roll back its interest rate policy and lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target of 4.5% to 4.75%.

The central bank announced the change after Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting national fiscal policy. The new target range is the highest level set by the Fed since 2007.

The latest rate hike is the Fed’s eighth consecutive anchor rate increase — and in all likelihood not its last. A statement released after the FOMC meeting indicated that “ongoing rate increases … will be appropriate” to further corral inflation, which the Fed said “has eased somewhat but remains elevated.” The announcement disappointed some market observers, who were hopeful that the Fed would signal no more rate increases moving forward.

“We think we’ve covered a lot of ground and financial conditions have certainly tightened,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a post-meeting press conference. “I would say we still think there’s work to do there. We haven’t made a decision on exactly where that will be. I think we’re going to be looking carefully at the incoming data between now and the March meeting, and then the May meeting.”

Still, it’s the second consecutive pullback when it comes to the size of the Fed’s rate increase, coming after the Reserve raised rates by 50 basis points in December. The 25-bps increase is the smallest increase to the federal funds rate since March 2022.

“Today’s more moderate rate increase is a clear signal to markets that, while the Fed may need to raise rates somewhat higher this year, it is getting closer to its terminal rate in this rate cycle as inflationary pressures continue to ease,” said Marty Green, principal at mortgage law firm Polunsky Beitel Green.

Wells Fargo economist Jay H. Bryson projected that the FOMC will raise its benchmark rate by another 25 bps at each of its next two policy meetings.

“That said, we do not have a high level of conviction regarding the exact amount of tightening that the committee will need to deliver,” Bryson wrote in Wells Fargo commentary. “The committee is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle, and the number of remaining rate hikes will depend on incoming economic data in coming weeks and months. We have a higher degree of conviction, however, in our belief that the FOMC will not be quick to ease policy.

“Committee members appear to be united in their view that inflation remains too high, and that policy will need to be restrictive in order to bring inflation back to the FOMC’s target of 2% on a sustained basis. … In that regard, we do not look for rate cuts to begin until early 2024.”

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Flexing Its Might https://www.scotsmanguide.com/residential/flexing-its-might/ Wed, 01 Feb 2023 10:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/uncategorized/flexing-its-might/ Get ready for the CFPB to play an even larger role in housing finance

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To the average observer, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is hardly an agency that comes to mind as one of the most consequential in the vast bureaucracy of the federal government. But since its founding almost a dozen years ago as the brainchild of now Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the bureau has slowly amassed power and under its current director has established itself as one of the strongest muscles in the machinery of the U.S. government.

While Chopra himself has acknowledged that there’s a lot to do, many critics would quickly riposte that he’s already done enough.

With the solid backing of the Biden administration, a Democrat-controlled Senate and an economy that many fear is on the precipice of recession, there are signs that the agency may be preparing to flex these muscles. Since the bureau regulates banks, lenders and other financial institutions, mortgage professionals want to understand the outsized role the CFPB could play in their lives.
After a political dogfight and a slender confirmation vote in the Senate, Rohit Chopra became director of the CFPB in the fall of 2021. He is no stranger to the agency, having been employed there at its creation as the agency’s first student loan ombudsman, and he has been heavily criticized for employing heavy-handed tactics (or, alternatively, praised for brilliant ones).
Chopra came into office with an extensive wish list of progressive action items. These included limiting provisions in consumer contracts that require mandatory arbitration of disputes; fighting excessive overdraft and convenience fees charged by banks to consumers; ensuring data security for consumer financial accounts; and addressing persistent lending discrimination claims. Additionally, he sought to harness the power of the agency to assist in preventing, or mitigating the effects of, another recession through the creation and enforcement of underwriting guidelines and disclosure rules, along with providing foreclosure-prevention assistance in a variety of forms.
In little more than a year, Chopra has shown a willingness to confront these and other items with a vigor and style of bureaucratic maneuvering that is both aggressive and imperial. Indeed, while Chopra himself has acknowledged that there’s a lot to do, many critics would quickly riposte that he’s already done enough.

Ambitious director

While the legal authority of the CFPB to do much of what Chopra wants has been frequently challenged before and during his tenure (with varying degrees of success), it is hard to argue that it has slowed him or the agency down. In October 2021, Chopra launched information requests to major technology companies regarding payment services offered to U.S. consumers, asserting the CFPB as the primary regulator of the nation’s financial technology companies.
He has since turned his attention to fair lending by attempting to curb historical redlining practices with the help of the Department of Justice. He also has increased regulatory enforcement attention on financial institutions’ treatment of overdraft fees, meeting with state attorneys general to encourage them to bring actions under the Consumer Financial Protection Act.
He has sought to make the CFPB a primary regulator of “securitization trusts,” tightened enforcement of the credit card industry and examined the regulation of private student loans. And he has moved to expand the scope of use of the Fair Credit Reporting Act while attacking the prevalence of “junk fees” charged to consumers.
In the process, he beefed up the CFPB’s enforcement actions, shutting down a small lender for regulatory violations, suing an event registration company, and successfully pursuing enforcement actions against major financial institutions and corporations for credit-reporting violations and errors. By virtue of a report issued by the agency in March 2022, he also was ultimately successful in getting credit card companies to stop reporting certain medical debt for consumer credit scores.
With this backdrop, expectations of the CFPB’s actions going forward are necessarily high for progressive advocates, with an equal mixture of apprehension on the part of political opponents. Already, Chopra has utilized the bureau’s staff (approximately 1,500 people) to review and research obscure and stale parts of federal law to advance the agency’s policies. Rather than limit his sphere of influence to the agency he leads, Chopra also has taken on influential roles within both the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Progressive agenda

Consumer advocates, who have generally embraced Chopra’s activist role over the past year, make no secret in clamoring for more and greater results. At or near the top of their wish list in this regard is a direct attack on the widespread use of mandatory arbitration agreements in consumer contracts.
Advocates claim this type of mandatory arbitration gives undue advantage to financial institutions, particularly for agreements that waive the ability to pursue class-action litigation. This was an issue pursued — and lost — by the CFPB in 2017 when congressional Republicans repealed the agency’s prior arbitration rule that prohibited these types of agreements from barring class actions. Although Chopra himself has acknowledged the bureau’s limitations on issuing a rule that is “substantially the same” as one already invalidated, any casual observer also must recognize both his drive and canniness in obtaining results, particularly with a highly supportive president.
There are a number of indications that Chopra has no intention of letting up for the remainder of his term. Indeed, those who doubt Chopra’s resolve might look to the CFPB’s historic $3.7 billion settlement with Wells Fargo, in the midst of the 2022 holiday season, for various “consumer abuses.”
More telling, however, might be Chopra’s cautionary remarks in the wake of that settlement that “it should not be read as a sign … that the CFPB’s work here is done.” In fact, the CFPB issued a notice this past summer that contemplates changing the rules that govern credit card late fees as well as enforcement activity pertaining to certain overdraft fees.
Not content to confine the agency’s activities to its traditional area of focus — financial institutions — Chopra has continued to place attention on large technology and credit card companies, insisting on both rigorous data security and enhancements for the protection of consumer payment data. Yet given the current state of economic affairs, it is virtually certain that the bulk of the CFPB’s attention for the foreseeable future will be aimed at addressing the possibility of a recession.
Chopra took office when the agency was geared toward staving off a foreclosure crisis as COVID-19 relief measures were expiring. He now faces rising interest rates along with steadily rising rates of default and foreclosure activity. Accordingly, given his experience and predilections, many insiders believe that Chopra will continue to scrupulously ensure compliance with post-2008 underwriting and disclosure guidelines, address credit-reporting obstacles, and hold banks to stringent compliance with loss-mitigation relief programs prior to and after declaration of default.
Still, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which the CFPB does not seek more than simple default- and foreclosure-prevention measures. In fact, in a nod to the importance of the agency, President Joe Biden shared a White House press conference with Chopra in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections. They highlighted the agency’s efforts to expand the scope of one of the banking industry’s bêtes noires for the past 40 years: the prohibition on unfair, deceptive and abusive acts and practices (UDAAP). The bureau’s expansion of UDAAP has already been challenged by trade groups.

Expansive mandate

Of course, it should not go unnoticed that this press conference occurred after 12 Republican senators sent an open letter to Chopra demanding that he “reverse course and stop using inappropriate tactics to harm financial institutions’ reputations and customer relationships in order to advance (his) liberal policy preferences.” In short, the CFPB shows no signs of backing down, particularly given the reassertion of Democratic control of the Senate.
This past fall alone, the CFPB’s own website highlighted (among other achievements) its work in taking action against a loan doctor for offering what the bureau called fake high-yield bank accounts; its partnership with the New York Attorney General’s office to combat companies that cheated 9/11 victims; its action against a mortgage company for cheating homeowners out of post-pandemic forbearance rights

The CFPB’s website is somewhat unassuming in describing the agency’s role, stating that it aims “to make consumer financial markets work for consumers.” It seeks to protect consumers from unfair, deceptive or abusive practices while taking action against companies that allegedly break the law. It also looks to equip the public with the information, processes and tools needed to make smart financial decisions. In reality, over the past 12 years, the agency has (with a brief pullback during the Trump administration) read its mandate much more expansively.
Economic and political considerations will undoubtedly affect the precise trajectory of the agency’s future activities. But those who prognosticate on what the future might hold (depending on their perspective) can either take solace or torment in Chopra’s own words last year to The Wall Street Journal: “There’s a lot. I just got here.” ●

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Outstanding mortgage debt is not in a stress-free situation https://www.scotsmanguide.com/commercial/outstanding-mortgage-debt-is-not-in-a-stressfree-situation/ Sun, 01 Jan 2023 09:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/uncategorized/outstanding-mortgage-debt-is-not-in-a-stressfree-situation/ Last year, the Federal Reserve released its newest stress-test results that include 34 of the nation’s largest financial institutions. Each year, the Fed creates a financial scenario to assess whether banks have the proper amount of capital and other safeguards to survive an economic shock. The Fed’s stress tests were established in the wake of […]

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Last year, the Federal Reserve released its newest stress-test results that include 34 of the nation’s largest financial institutions. Each year, the Fed creates a financial scenario to assess whether banks have the proper amount of capital and other safeguards to survive an economic shock. The Fed’s stress tests were established in the wake of the Great Recession and began in 2011 to ensure that the U.S. banking system could withstand major economic downturns.

While the most recent test didn’t create much fanfare, it did offer some surprising insights involving commercial real estate. The test’s “severely adverse scenario” was characterized by a major global recession accompanied by a period of heightened stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets. Under this scenario, the downturn is deepened due to remote work, leading to declines in commercial real estate prices. In turn, this reduces corporate earnings and sours investor attitudes. Foreign economies suffer from various hardships, including escalating risks in the Chinese economy. And these pressures wind up causing commercial property prices to drop by 40% from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023.

If the Fed says your portfolio is riskier than others, we would like to find out why.

– John Mackerey, senior vice president, DBRS Morningstar
In short, the stress-test scenario involved a perfect storm of inflation, high interest rates, rising unemployment, supply chain troubles and international turbulence. This version of the test was the equivalent of throwing everything plus the kitchen sink at banks to see how they would perform. Although such a scenario would be quite extreme, it isn’t completely outside the realm of possibility if there were to be an actual global recession, which many economists, pundits and former government officials have been warning about for months.
Despite the doom and gloom that surrounds the financial-services sector these days, the Fed’s final report card was mostly good, with all 34 banks in the scenario having enough cash on hand to withstand the slings and arrows of a major global recession and a combined $612 billion in losses. But there were some potential risks discovered in a few sectors, including commercial real estate, which fared worse on the test than many other types of investments.
Credit-ratings agency DBRS Morningstar found that, under this extreme stress-test scenario, commercial real estate losses were second only to credit cards. The report also showed that across the nation’s publicly traded banks, average losses would represent 10.7% of their commercial mortgage portfolios compared to only 6.5% of their total portfolios. This shows that commercial real estate remains more vulnerable in a downturn.
“With commercial real estate losses being second to only credit cards, which are unsecured, that highlights the potential risk for the sector in a severe economic scenario that the Federal Reserve has created,” says John Mackerey, a DBRS Morningstar senior vice president.
A Federal Reserve press release explains that even in a serious recession, the banks’ aggregate common equity capital ratio — which provides a cushion against losses — is expected to decline by 270 basis to a minimum of 9.7%. This is still more than double the minimum requirement of 4.5%. Aggregate losses were mainly driven by some $450 billion in loan losses, along with $100 billion in trading and counterparty losses. This shows that the losses were primarily driven by loan defaults.
Under the Fed’s scenario, Morgan Stanley would face the highest losses at 21% of its commercial mortgage holdings, followed by Goldman Sachs at 19.7% and HSBC at 16.1%. Mackerey says it requires more information to know exactly why these institutions stood out in the test. And he cautions that the stress-test parameters were created by the Fed, so there are a lot of unknown details.
Still, he says, it’s probably an accurate description for the test results to infer that commercial real estate has the potential for greater losses in a downturn than other asset classes. He believes that these findings are worth noting, but he’s not overly concerned.
“Our conclusion was essentially that the losses were absorbable by the banks, so that is positive,” Mackerey says. “Bank exposure to commercial real estate is different than it was during the financial crisis (of 2007 to 2009). Generally, there is less of it, and what they are financing tends to be a better mixture and greater diversity. So, we don’t view these numbers as alarming.”
While such tests might seem like esoteric activities, they do have a purpose. They help to assure that banks are in good shape. They also offer some insights — even if limited — into how each financial institution is faring along with some sense of their strategies. Mackerey says the stress-test results also may generate conversations with banks to find the reasons for these estimated losses.
“When you look at the average for the banks and someone is an outlier, such as Morgan Stanley, we try to understand what the Fed saw in their portfolio and see how they can explain the Fed’s results,” Mackerey says. “If the Fed says your portfolio is riskier than others, we would like to find out why.
“And they may be able to explain the issue easily. It may be that the Fed isn’t giving them credit for various characteristics in their portfolio. Some of these banks may also have relatively small commercial real estate portfolios. So, the losses seem outsized. It may be something simple. You just don’t know.” ●

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Fed finally backs off 75-bps hikes with December rate increase https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/fed-finally-backs-off-of-75basispoint-hikes-with-december-rate-increase/ Wed, 14 Dec 2022 20:21:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/uncategorized/fed-finally-backs-off-of-75basispoint-hikes-with-december-rate-increase/ The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday, a widely expected move that put a stop to four straight hikes of 75 basis points (bps) and signaled that inflation may finally be beginning to cool. The increase still moved the Fed’s policy rate to a range of 4.25 […]

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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday, a widely expected move that put a stop to four straight hikes of 75 basis points (bps) and signaled that inflation may finally be beginning to cool.

The increase still moved the Fed’s policy rate to a range of 4.25 to 4.5%, the highest it has been since 2007. And while the Fed eased off slightly from its recent hawkishness in using interest rates to combat inflation, it reiterated that it would continue to be both vigilant and diligent in using its tools to stay on the offensive, even with the turbulence its aggressive moves have helped to stir up.

“I’d like to underscore for the American people that we understand the hardship that inflation is causing,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said following Wednesday’s meeting of the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Powell made it clear, however, that the Fed will continue to wield the tools in its arsenal to rein in stubborn inflation.

“We have more work to do,” he said. “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor-market conditions.

“We are seeing the effects [of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes] on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as housing. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.”

Powell acknowledged that some factors, such as normalizing consumer demand and supply chain progress, are helping to quell inflation. But other headwinds, including strong wage growth, are still fueling the rampant rise of prices.

Indeed, the statement released by the FOMC pointed to “ongoing increases in the target range” in order to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. New economic projections issued Wednesday by the central bank revealed that officials now anticipate inflation to close this year at 4.8%, gradually dwindling back to 3.5% in 2023 and falling to 2.5% in 2024.

Federal Reserve projections also foresee the benchmark rate peaking at 5.1% next year, up 50 bps from its most recent forecast of 4.6% in September. Furthermore, the forecasts have rates settling to 4.1% in 2024, somewhat higher than prior predictions. The Fed’s statement also indicated that it will continue to reduce its debt holdings (including agency mortgage-backed securities) at its current pace.

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John E. Bell III, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs https://www.scotsmanguide.com/residential/john-e-bell-iii-us-department-of-veterans-affairs/ Thu, 01 Dec 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://www.scotsmanguide.com/uncategorized/john-e-bell-iii-us-department-of-veterans-affairs/ VA loans emerge as attractive option in a shifting market

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The number of home loans guaranteed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) plummeted over the past federal fiscal year. The agency saw a record 1.44 million loans guaranteed in fiscal year 2021. That dropped to nearly 750,000 in fiscal year 2022, which ran from Oct. 1, 2021, through Sept. 30, 2022.

The total loan volume fell to $256.6 billion in fiscal year 2022, down from a record-breaking $447 billion in the prior year. Veteran borrowers were at a disadvantage in the then-hot housing market, where they competed against all-cash buyers and investors, said John E. Bell III, executive director of the VA’s loan guaranty service. That changed, however, as speculators left the market this past summer.

If there’s one point that Bell wants to get across, it’s that VA loans offer remarkable benefits for veterans. “If you’re not making a VA loan to a veteran that qualifies, you’re costing them money,” Bell said. “If you’re a lender, why aren’t you offering it? Because we still see that it’s the best product out there for our vets.”

Bell recently spoke to Scotsman Guide about the VA loan program and the changing housing market. He also spoke about the VA’s ongoing modernization efforts and its goal to ease restoration of entitlement, or how veterans who have used the VA guarantee can restore the benefit for future use.

We know that rising rates don’t necessarily kill the market. Rising rates with declining appreciation, that could cause issues.

How is the cooling market affecting VA loan borrowers?
Let’s just talk some real numbers here. For fiscal year ‘22, we have seen the third-best year on record for the VA for total loans, the third-best year for purchase loans and the highest we’ve ever seen for cash-out refinances.
Why did the numbers decline?
If you really dive into why, it’s that veterans went through half of (fiscal year 2022) unable to compete in the marketplace. Institutional investors, cash investors were flooding the market, driving prices up, and veterans weren’t even being considered in the bid.
That changed?
From July to now, we’ve seen veterans compete more and more, winning bids and contracts at a very fast pace. It’s because, again, those institutional investors with cash buying investment properties left the marketplace and left it rapidly.
Do you think this trend will continue?
We know that rising rates don’t necessarily kill the market. Rising rates with declining appreciation on housing prices, that could cause issues. We’re all waiting because we’re seeing pockets of declines in certain markets.
Can you talk about the efforts to modernize the VA loan process?
This is just another way for us to decrease the time it takes to guarantee loans and to keep the price down as much as possible. We’re really trying to work with Ginnie Mae, work with our lenders to make sure that during the transaction, they can go sell that mortgage-backed security on the day they close so it keeps the price down.
The modernization efforts aren’t on the front end with borrowers, but the back end with lenders and the secondary markets?
Exactly. It’s tying in that whole process together. It’s really end to end of the loan life cycle. The other thing that this allows you to do is make policy decisions on the front end, based upon the historical information on performance that the back end is telling you.
What are the issues surrounding the restoration of entitlement through refinancing?
We’re tackling it right now. With every great technology, you’ve got to have the infrastructure in place to be able to support it. In the next eight to 10 months, we’re going to require that lenders report to us electronically with data from every transaction. Once we’re able to get that data into our system, we can start building the rules on that restoration of entitlement.
When do you foresee the VA potentially getting an automated underwriting system?
We are one of the only program agencies that does not have an automated underwriting system. We are trying to fix that. That’s in our modernization transformation, (where we’re trying to find a) way for us to be able to understand which veterans are not making it across the finish line. We’re hoping and striving to get toward that after (the current modernization efforts). ●

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